(北京工業(yè)大學 材料與制造學部，工業(yè)大數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)用技術(shù)國家工程實驗室，北京 100124)
摘 要: 本研究在國家碳達峰目標的指引下，梳理并核算了原鋁生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的歷史數(shù)據(jù)，并以此為基礎(chǔ)，通過對未來15年中國電解鋁生產(chǎn)技術(shù)改進潛力、電力結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整及再生鋁產(chǎn)量等因素的預(yù)測，建立原鋁溫室氣體排放的多因素分析模型，探究在基準情景(BAU)、低改進效率情景(LIR)和高改進效率(HIR)三種情景下我國原鋁生產(chǎn)溫室氣體減排和碳達峰路徑。結(jié)果表明：我國歷年噸鋁溫室氣體排放潛力呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢。預(yù)測了電解鋁先進技術(shù)應(yīng)用、電力消費結(jié)構(gòu)變化及提高再生鋁占比對降低噸鋁溫室氣體排放的影響。我國鋁生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放在BAU情景下將在2030年達到峰值，在LIR情景下將在2027年達到峰值，在HIR情景下將在2021年達到峰值。給出了三種情景下鋁產(chǎn)量的增長率，作為確保碳達峰后的限定條件。
關(guān)鍵字: 碳排放；碳達峰；原鋁；再生鋁
（National Engineering Laboratory for Industrial Big-data Application Technology, Faculty of Materials and Manufacturing, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China）
Abstract:According to the guidance of the national carbon peak target, the historical data of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from primary aluminum production were calculated and analyzed in this study. A multi-factor analysis model of GHG emissions from primary aluminum was established by forecasting the potential for improvement of electrolytic aluminum production technology, power structure adjustment and recycled aluminum production in China for the next 15 years. The GHG emission reduction and carbon peaking pathways of primary aluminum production in China were explored under three scenarios including the baseline scenario (BAU), the low improvement efficiency scenario (LIR) and the high improvement efficiency scenario (HIR).The results show that the GHG emission potential of 1 ton primary aluminum production in China illustrated a decreasing trend over the years. The potential of the advanced technology application of aluminum electrolysis, the change of electricity consumption structure and increasing the proportion of recycled aluminum for the GHG emissions reduction of 1 ton aluminum were forecasted. The GHG emissions of China primary aluminum production would peak in 2030 with the BAU scenario, while in 2027 with the LIR scenario and in 2021 with the HIR scenario, respectively. The variation range of aluminum output in the three scenarios was then given as the limiting condition to ensure the peak.
Key words: carbon emission; carbon emission peak; primary aluminum; recycled aluminum
