(1.中國科學(xué)院 武漢巖土力學(xué)研究所
巖土力學(xué)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 武漢 430071;
2.東北大學(xué) 資源與土木工程學(xué)院, 沈陽 110004;
3.山東科技大學(xué) 礦壓研究所, 泰安 271019)
摘 要: 巖體混沌動力系統(tǒng)演化過程的可預(yù)測尺度是非線性預(yù)測理論研究的重要內(nèi)容。在利用傳統(tǒng)的理論和方法分析實(shí)際問題時，常常由于觀測資料不足而無法計(jì)算巖體動力系統(tǒng)的可預(yù)測尺度。為了解決這一問題，基于胞映射理論提出了一種新的巖體動力系統(tǒng)可預(yù)測尺度的計(jì)算模型。該模型基于系統(tǒng)的非線性動力學(xué)方程和隨機(jī)過程理論，將點(diǎn)到點(diǎn)的映射轉(zhuǎn)化成胞到胞的映射，以系統(tǒng)演化達(dá)到極限狀態(tài)概率分布前的時段作為系統(tǒng)的可預(yù)測尺度，消除了初值觀測誤差和系統(tǒng)離散化對系統(tǒng)造成的影響，從而可以更精確地描述系統(tǒng)的混沌性本質(zhì)。實(shí)例的應(yīng)用也表明了這一點(diǎn)。
關(guān)鍵字: 胞映射理論；巖體動力系統(tǒng)；可預(yù)測尺度
rock mass dynamic system using
cell-mapping theory
（1.Key Laboratory of Rock and Soil Mechanics，
Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, The Chinese Academy of
Science, Wuhan 430071, China;
2.School of Resource and Civil Engineering,
Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China；
3.Shandong University of Science and Technology,
Tai′an 271019, China）
Abstract:Predictable time scale of the evolution of chaotic rock mass dynamic systems is one of the most important parameters in nonlinear forecasting theory. However, the predictable time scale of most rock mass dynamic systems can't be calculated because of lack of the observing data. In order to solve this problem, a new model to calculate the predictive time scale of rock mass dynamic system was proposed using the cell-mapping theory. The model transforms the point-to-point mapping to cell-to-cell mapping using the nonlinear dynamic equation of system and stochastic process theory, and considers period of time before evolution of system reaches to the limit probability distribution as the predictable time scale of system. The model eliminates the influences of error of initial condition s and dispersal on the evolution of system, so chaotic essence of system can be characterized more accurately which is also proved by the example. Case study in dicates these advantages.
Key words: cell-mapping theory; rock mass dynamic system; predictable time scale
