(石家莊鐵道學(xué)院 交通工程系， 石家莊 050043)
摘 要: 根據(jù)最小方差預(yù)測(cè)理論，提出了用最小方差預(yù)測(cè)法預(yù)測(cè)巖土工程變形，對(duì)其建模機(jī)理和準(zhǔn)則進(jìn)行了論述，并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)化方法進(jìn)行了研究和探討。在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中，將最小方差預(yù)測(cè)法與其它預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行了比較。結(jié)果表明，該方法建模簡(jiǎn)便，計(jì)算簡(jiǎn)單，模型更新優(yōu)化快，能取得較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度。
關(guān)鍵字: 最小方差預(yù)測(cè)； 變形預(yù)測(cè)； 模型優(yōu)化
least square error forecasting method
（Department of Traffic Engineering， Shijiazhuang Railway Institute，
Shijiazhuang 050043, P.R.China）
Abstract:A method for forecasting geotechnical engineering distortion by applying the least square error forecasting theory was presented，and the model optimization was studied. In real application， modelling is more simple and easier，and model optimizing is faster than other forecasting methods. The method can get better forecasting precision.
Key words: least square error forecasting; forecasting distortion; model optimized
