Abstract:In order to know the maximum mining ground deformation of arbitrary surface point, directions of the maximum surface tilt, curvature，horizontal displacement and horizontal deformation caused by multi-working faces were deduced based on probability integral method. The distribution forms of surface deformations in all direction φ∈[0, 2π] were obtained and also equations of maximum deformations were given based on calculation of mining ground deformation in direction φ. A mining subsidence analysis system was developed with VB6.0. The system implements the probability integral mining subsidence prediction with direct integration method, and it can avoid errors of arbitrary shaped working face subdivision of traditional method, and accuracy of mining subsidence prediction can be improved with the direct integral method. The system implements the contour chart and profile chart and also data analysis automation by manipulation of the SURFER kernel function and it complements the defect of existing subsidence prediction software. Calculation of maximum deformations caused by multi-working faces mining in a coal mine of Xuzhou, China was shown as application example. Engineering application indicates that maximum deformation of mining ground surface can be calculated and analyzed by the system. The research provides a theoretical basis and calculation tool for mining subsidence prediction and analysis.

Key words: mining subsidence; probability integral method; movement and deformation; system development